Know which stocks might benefit in a Trump vs Biden Administration

From the 11ish archive: written in October 2020. Prices, numbers and views are from then and are not investment advice today.

As we move, I dare say, uncomfortably close to the presidential election, it’s time for us to talk about a fun topic. Minus the risk of inflation, recession, and international shenanigans, what kind of stocks will thrive under a Biden Administration? What kind of stocks might do well if we have a second round of Trump? In this post, we’re going to talk about just that.

First I’m going to share with you which industries will benefit in either scenario and why. Then I will share with you my stock picks, some more obvious than others.

What’s the main difference between Trump’s economic agenda vs Biden’s.

Both

Both candidates want to stimulate the economy with a 1 trillion dollar infrastructure bill.

• Goals are to improve internet and transit infrastructure

Confronting China on the battle of intellectual property and technology transfers

Biden

• Green Tech: Wants to spend 400 Billion on clean energy
• 100 Billion on modernizing schools
• Crack down on tax havens, tax hike on the 1%
• Expanding Obamacare
• Ending subsidies on fossil fuel

Trump

• A lot more vague but presumably an extension of the administration’s current action items.
  • Military prowess
  • War on China
  • Help industries that he personally cares about, which in my opinion falls into the “old money” categories: fossil fuel, airlines, farming, construction

I think the biggest difference between Trump’s approach vs Biden’s is that Biden wants to create value for the United States by making calculated bets into future industries. Whilst my impression of Trump is that he will always help established big players grow, because he values winners above all else. And he seems to expect the free market to adjust and work itself out.

So with all of that in mind,

I do not think you can go wrong if you invest in the commercial grade infrastructure & construction industry. My favorite is IFRA, the US infrastructure ETF. If you want more specifics, I’d go for ERIC, Crown Castle, & AMT for 5G and cell towers. Vulcan Materials for construction material behemoth. If Biden wins, I’d consider investing in Cemex, because they’re a commercial grade cement company. The concern here is that they are a Mexican-run company and we know how Trump feels about that.

If Biden wins…

I would lean heavily into the idea of green tech and the modernization of schools. This to me means the digitization of education, and therefore, I’d look into CHEG, UDEMY, and ZOOM.

For green tech, I think there are too many top level players and I’d rather bet on the platform. What I mean by that is instead of investing in the car brand, invest in the companies multiple car brands use. This would be GRAF for lidar, Panasonic for battery, EMAN & OLED for digital displays. I would also take a serious look at fake meat companies.

I also think you should take a look at Siemens because they build big-ass energy-producing windmills and they’re not Chinese.

And lastly, because Biden cares about Obamacare, I’d think about investing in health insurance companies as well, because that’d drive more business towards them.

If Trump Wins…

Consider moving to Canada before world war 3 starts (just kidding).

I think there would be a sign of relief from the fossil fuel front, and even though I personally wouldn’t invest for personal beliefs, I think that industry will get a nice boost. I also think that Boeing will get a nice boost because it’s in a sector Trump cares about AND they handle a ton of military projects.

For Pharma, you already know he’s into Gilead and Regeneron, so that’s probably a reasonably safe bet for you if Trump wins.

Lastly, I’d invest in agricultural ETFs, because a) Trump likes that industry and b) even if we end up in a recession, people gotta eat. Your worst enemy on agricultural ETFs will be trade wars.

So those are my thoughts on industries and companies that might be directly affected by Trump or Biden winning. And if you want to avoid all of that altogether, as always, I highly recommend investing in gaming and remote office productivity. Especially remote productivity, because many many companies are still trying to figure out the logistics, which can only mean a big juicy boom for this industry.

Disclosure: As of October 3, 2026, the author holds ZM. No payment was received for this post. This is commentary from October 2020, not investment advice. Zoom is an investor in Anthropic, the company behind Claude, the AI that helped edit this archive.